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May 23rd / 25th, 2008

"Florida May Haunt Democrats Again"

As a member of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, and as a judge for the Emmys, I was recently able to view an advance copy of HBO’s new film “ Recount”. It reminded me of just how corrupt and unpredictable American presidential politics can be. “Recount” is the dramatic re-telling of how in 2000, George Bush and his political cronies (including in the Supreme Court) denied Al Gore the opportunity to properly count all votes in the Sunshine State. Gore still managed to win the popular vote nationwide, but lost in the electoral college due to shenanigans in Florida. In any event, my purpose is not to review a movie, but rather to point out that, once again, Florida may be the controversial key to who will occupy the Oval Office next January.

As you recall (pardon the expression), the Republican-controlled Florida legislature voted last year to move its primary to an earlier date, knowing that the opposition party would penalize voters by refusing to seat all delegates.

Still, over 1.7 million Democrats turned out to vote, and they cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, giving her 105 of the 185 delegates up for grabs. It was a huge victory for Clinton because her supporters turned out in record numbers despite threats from the Democratic National Committee. Speaking of the idiots at DNC, they will meet again on May 31 to decide once and for all what to do about the Florida delegation. They will also rule on the Michigan debacle where voters there were disenfranchised for the same reason as in Florida. Hillary won even bigger in Michigan with 55% of the vote and picking up 85 denied delegates.

I don’t care whether or not you like Senator Clinton, the fact remains that she deserves those 190 missing delegates just as Al Gore deserved to have thousands of missing votes counted eight years ago. And the people of Florida and Michigan deserve to have their voices heard in this election.

If the DNC denies Hillary her rightful delegates, then I hope she mounts a legal challenge. And this time, unlike in 2000, the Supreme Court might actually make an unbiased ruling since most of the Justices have no stake in the Democratic squabble.

Giving Clinton her missing 190 delegates would put her back in the hunt and cut down Obama’s lead, which currently stands at 1903 to 1718.

If, however, Hillary loses her fight in Florida and Michigan, and if Obama is the nominee, then the Democrats face another problem in November.

Remember that Hillary won big in Florida, mainly because she is popular with older Americans, many of whom say they would not vote for Obama. In that case, Barack may be denied the White House because of voter dissatisfaction from voters who he helped to disenfranchise in the first place. Think about it.

Obama must also be concerned about the legendary Democratic curse. In recent history whenever two democrats waged a fierce primary battle against each other, the eventual nominee suffered in the general election.

Ted Kennedy sullied Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Gary Hart did the same for Walter Mondale in 1984.

By all accounts, Obama and Clinton dislike each other, and their rhetoric has been heated to say the least. As the nominee, it will be up to Barack to repair the damage – particularly among white, working class democrats who are threatening to stay home in November if Hillary isn’t heading up the ticket.

According to CNN data collector John King, Obama can only defeat John McCain if the democrat takes Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia out of the GOP electoral column. And, adds King, Barack must do well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

But with all due respect to King (and to the bevy of national media pundits), it will be Florida that decides the 2008 election, either prior to, or on November 4.

One way or another, the Sunshine State will once again play a controversial role in Presidential politics. The question is, who will end up benefitting most from that controversy? And so, I urge you to watch “Recount” on HBO, then I urge you to watch Florida. Both will prove to be entertaining and informative.