By 12:30 last Wednesday morning, we knew that Donald Trump would be our next president. We also knew that Richard Burr had won his final Senate campaign. In fact, we knew just about every outcome except one. The North Carolina governor’s race was too close to call.
Attorney General Roy Cooper and Governor Pat McCrory had traded leads throughout the night, then with only 14 precincts outstanding, McCrory held what some observers called an insurmountable 50,000 vote edge. But those precincts were in Durham county, where earlier in the evening some of the voting machines had malfunctioned, so polls were allowed to remain open for an additional hour. Suddenly, some 90,000 Durham county votes rushed in like water breaking through a dam, and just as suddenly, McCrory’s lead was washed away. Cooper went up by just under 5,000 votes out of nearly 5 million cast. McCrory told his followers that the race wasn’t over until all absentee and provisional ballots were counted. Cooper told his followers that the race was won, and declared himself the victor. It was yet another contentious moment in what had been an extremely contentious campaign.
During their debates, and in his television ads, Cooper had misrepresented the facts about a number of hot button issues. For example, he criticized McCrory because North Carolina was 41st in teacher pay. But Roy neglected to mention that we were 48th when Pat took office, and that we would be 33rd next year due to policies which the Governor enacted this year. Cooper also bragged that he had fixed the state crime lab, but failed to mention that he merely outsourced the backlog which still exists. Cooper’s ads also accused McCrory of giving Duke Energy a sweetheart deal with regards to the coal ash spill, saying that Pat stuck taxpayers with the bill. None of that was true. And there was HB2 which Cooper said McCrory had wrought upon our state, and cost us millions of dollars. But it was Cooper who, early on, could have prevented HB2 by declaring the controversial Charlotte bathroom ordinance unconstitutional. And it was Pat who tried to keep the issue out of the legislature.
Unfortunately, misinformation seemed to matter on election night. Had it not, McCrory would have won, and won big. Instead, he must wait until later this week to see if outstanding ballots have been cast in his favor.
Late last week I spoke by phone with Patrick Gannon, who works at the State Board of Elections in Raleigh. Gannon told me that his office had mailed out 35,000 absentee ballots, and that “tens of thousands” of provisional ballots (approximately 50,000) were also still outstanding. He said that while all provisional ballots will be counted, probably only “a fraction” of the absentee ballots will even be mailed back in. Based on 2012 returns, we can expect that around 6,000 such ballots will be counted this week, and they will include military ballots from overseas.
So let’s suppose that 6,000 absentee ballots and 50,000 provisional ballots will be counted by November 18. For McCrory to win the election, about 33,000 of the outstanding votes must be cast in his favor. Some pundits say that won’t happen because such ballots usually fall in line with voting trends in each county. If that happens, Cooper could conceivably end up with a wider margin of victory than he has now. Meanwhile, on Saturday, the McCrory campaign demanded that the 90,000 Durham county votes be re-counted because another machine failure had caused those votes to be tabulated by hand.
Irrespective of this week’s final tally, the real story of the gubernatorial contest is about the people who did not vote for Pat McCrory. To make my point, let’s look at vote totals in Forsyth and Guilford counties, from 2012 and 2016. Four years ago McCrory received 87,499 votes in Forsyth and 114,906 in Guilford. Last week those totals fell to 77,144 and 93,893 respectively. Translation? 31,000 residents of Forsyth and Guilford who voted for McCrory in 2012, abandoned him last week. To put things in even sharper perspective, in Forsyth county alone where Republicans fared very well, 5,200 people in just 14 precincts who voted for Pat in 2012, did not vote for him this time around. That would have been enough votes to keep McCrory in office.
So why the great migration away from Pat McCrory? Voters in Mecklenburg might say it was his support for toll lanes on I-77. Voters in Wilmington could have been angry about film industry revenues going out of state because Pat pulled back on incentive money. And voters in other areas are still concerned about pollution from the Duke Energy spill. But let’s be honest. Pat’s 2016 numbers are mainly down because of HB2, what it represents and what it has cost the state.
Ironically, Lt. Governor Dan Forest, who called the General Assembly into special session to vote on HB2, and was a principal architect of the controversial bill, won re-election in a landslide. Meanwhile Pat, who tried to prevent HB2, was unfairly thrown under the bus by members of both parties, the media, and, the voters.
I don’t mind someone being tossed out of office for malfeasance, corruption, or for doing a bad job. But losing re-election for not wanting boys and girls to shower together, defies common sense.
Since taking office nearly four years ago, Pat McCrory brought down unemployment levels, and grew the median average income by 21% while the nation as a whole increased by only 7%. He balanced the budget and left us with a substantial surplus to be used in case of another economic downturn. He paid off our debt to the federal government, and he banked a rainy day fund (which Cooper opposed) that is now helping flood victims get back on their feet. He also fought successfully for passage of the $2 billion dollar Connect NC bond, and did so with bipartisan support. Yet some of the very people who benefitted from his many accomplishments withheld their vote for him last week. I guess a lot of folks have short memories.
And what was it about Roy Cooper’s record that lured voters away from McCrory? Roy mismanaged the crime lab, left the Duke lacrosse team hanging for a year, waged war on nasal decongestants, was MIA when the Governor asked for help with Connect NC, did nothing to keep health insurers from price-gouging their customers, and dodged the press at every turn.
I don’t know how the final vote will look, but it would be ironic if absentee ballots propel a man into office who has been largely absent himself.
Governor Roy Cooper?
By 12:30 last Wednesday morning, we knew that Donald Trump would be our next president. We also knew that Richard Burr had won his final Senate campaign. In fact, we knew just about every outcome except one. The North Carolina governor’s race was too close to call.
Attorney General Roy Cooper and Governor Pat McCrory had traded leads throughout the night, then with only 14 precincts outstanding, McCrory held what some observers called an insurmountable 50,000 vote edge. But those precincts were in Durham county, where earlier in the evening some of the voting machines had malfunctioned, so polls were allowed to remain open for an additional hour. Suddenly, some 90,000 Durham county votes rushed in like water breaking through a dam, and just as suddenly, McCrory’s lead was washed away. Cooper went up by just under 5,000 votes out of nearly 5 million cast. McCrory told his followers that the race wasn’t over until all absentee and provisional ballots were counted. Cooper told his followers that the race was won, and declared himself the victor. It was yet another contentious moment in what had been an extremely contentious campaign.
During their debates, and in his television ads, Cooper had misrepresented the facts about a number of hot button issues. For example, he criticized McCrory because North Carolina was 41st in teacher pay. But Roy neglected to mention that we were 48th when Pat took office, and that we would be 33rd next year due to policies which the Governor enacted this year. Cooper also bragged that he had fixed the state crime lab, but failed to mention that he merely outsourced the backlog which still exists. Cooper’s ads also accused McCrory of giving Duke Energy a sweetheart deal with regards to the coal ash spill, saying that Pat stuck taxpayers with the bill. None of that was true. And there was HB2 which Cooper said McCrory had wrought upon our state, and cost us millions of dollars. But it was Cooper who, early on, could have prevented HB2 by declaring the controversial Charlotte bathroom ordinance unconstitutional. And it was Pat who tried to keep the issue out of the legislature.
Unfortunately, misinformation seemed to matter on election night. Had it not, McCrory would have won, and won big. Instead, he must wait until later this week to see if outstanding ballots have been cast in his favor.
Late last week I spoke by phone with Patrick Gannon, who works at the State Board of Elections in Raleigh. Gannon told me that his office had mailed out 35,000 absentee ballots, and that “tens of thousands” of provisional ballots (approximately 50,000) were also still outstanding. He said that while all provisional ballots will be counted, probably only “a fraction” of the absentee ballots will even be mailed back in. Based on 2012 returns, we can expect that around 6,000 such ballots will be counted this week, and they will include military ballots from overseas.
So let’s suppose that 6,000 absentee ballots and 50,000 provisional ballots will be counted by November 18. For McCrory to win the election, about 33,000 of the outstanding votes must be cast in his favor. Some pundits say that won’t happen because such ballots usually fall in line with voting trends in each county. If that happens, Cooper could conceivably end up with a wider margin of victory than he has now. Meanwhile, on Saturday, the McCrory campaign demanded that the 90,000 Durham county votes be re-counted because another machine failure had caused those votes to be tabulated by hand.
Irrespective of this week’s final tally, the real story of the gubernatorial contest is about the people who did not vote for Pat McCrory. To make my point, let’s look at vote totals in Forsyth and Guilford counties, from 2012 and 2016. Four years ago McCrory received 87,499 votes in Forsyth and 114,906 in Guilford. Last week those totals fell to 77,144 and 93,893 respectively. Translation? 31,000 residents of Forsyth and Guilford who voted for McCrory in 2012, abandoned him last week. To put things in even sharper perspective, in Forsyth county alone where Republicans fared very well, 5,200 people in just 14 precincts who voted for Pat in 2012, did not vote for him this time around. That would have been enough votes to keep McCrory in office.
So why the great migration away from Pat McCrory? Voters in Mecklenburg might say it was his support for toll lanes on I-77. Voters in Wilmington could have been angry about film industry revenues going out of state because Pat pulled back on incentive money. And voters in other areas are still concerned about pollution from the Duke Energy spill. But let’s be honest. Pat’s 2016 numbers are mainly down because of HB2, what it represents and what it has cost the state.
Ironically, Lt. Governor Dan Forest, who called the General Assembly into special session to vote on HB2, and was a principal architect of the controversial bill, won re-election in a landslide. Meanwhile Pat, who tried to prevent HB2, was unfairly thrown under the bus by members of both parties, the media, and, the voters.
I don’t mind someone being tossed out of office for malfeasance, corruption, or for doing a bad job. But losing re-election for not wanting boys and girls to shower together, defies common sense.
Since taking office nearly four years ago, Pat McCrory brought down unemployment levels, and grew the median average income by 21% while the nation as a whole increased by only 7%. He balanced the budget and left us with a substantial surplus to be used in case of another economic downturn. He paid off our debt to the federal government, and he banked a rainy day fund (which Cooper opposed) that is now helping flood victims get back on their feet. He also fought successfully for passage of the $2 billion dollar Connect NC bond, and did so with bipartisan support. Yet some of the very people who benefitted from his many accomplishments withheld their vote for him last week. I guess a lot of folks have short memories.
And what was it about Roy Cooper’s record that lured voters away from McCrory? Roy mismanaged the crime lab, left the Duke lacrosse team hanging for a year, waged war on nasal decongestants, was MIA when the Governor asked for help with Connect NC, did nothing to keep health insurers from price-gouging their customers, and dodged the press at every turn.
I don’t know how the final vote will look, but it would be ironic if absentee ballots propel a man into office who has been largely absent himself.