Every four years about this time, we hear politicians tell us that “every vote counts.” Concurrently we also hear stories of election fraud which make us wonder if that axiom is really moot. There were hanging chads in Florida in 2000, rigged machines in Ohio in 2004, and this year we were treated to partisan corruption by the DNC and CNN against Bernie Sanders. In addition to alleged fraud, the political system itself can also make us cynical about the importance of our vote. After all, the electoral college essentially tells voters in smaller states that their ballot doesn’t matter as much as those in larger states. But thanks to an already tightening presidential race, and the specter of the 12th amendment waiting in the wings, every single vote really will count this time. More on the 12th Amendment in a moment. First let’s examine who actually votes and when they vote here in the Tar Heel State.
In 2012, 48% of North Carolinians who voted early were Democrats, and 31% were Republicans. The actual tally was 893,000 to 585,000 respectively. As of last Friday, Democrats comprised 42% of early voters, and Republicans 30%, which means we’ve seen an increase in early voting for third party candidates this time. No surprise, given that both Trump and Clinton are highly unpopular. Early voting across North Carolina may also tell us about the strength of the Obama coalition.
In 2012, 520,000 African Americans turned out to vote early for the President, but this year that number dropped to 473,000. It’s one reason that the Triad in particular has been targeted by the Clinton campaign as a must-win region in a must-win state, and it’s why the President and his wife have made so many visits to our area. Michelle Obama recently reminded supporters at a rally that her husband won North Carolina in 2008 by just 200 votes per precinct, and lost the state in 2012 by 17 votes per precinct. It’s no wonder that one week later, speaking at a rally in Chapel Hill, the President himself told supporters, “the fate of the Republic rests on your shoulders!” Yet try as he may to protect his legacy and shore up support for Hillary, Mr. Obama may not be able to energize his urban base for a candidate with such high negatives. We’ll have to wait and see after today.
Speaking of today, you may not have to traverse long lines at the polls, because pundits have estimated that anywhere from 40 to 50% of North Carolinians voted early. I’m encouraged that so many people have come out to vote early, yet I’m concerned about the vote totals themselves. According to the State Board of Elections, only 68% of registered voters bothered to participate in the 2012 election. What does that mean in actual numbers? There are approximately 7.4 million people of voting age in North Carolina, but only 4.5 million of them voted four years ago. That means nearly 3 million registered voters stayed home instead of choosing between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Even worse, 18% of voting age residents have never bothered to register. So how do these discouraging statewide statistics translate to local data? In Guilford county, for example, there are approximately 350,000 adults of voting age, but in 2012, only 250,000 of them voted for president. That means over 100,000 people in Guilford county don’t bother to vote.
America is known as the “cradle of democracy”, yet our voting record says otherwise. In Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, 80% to 90% of people vote, compared to our 68%. We should be ashamed. With the convenience of early voting and the availability of absentee ballots, there is just no excuse for not voting, especially this year when every vote in North Carolina actually WILL count. As of this writing, Clinton and Trump are running neck and neck nationally, and Hillary enjoys a narrow lead in our state. So why are our votes so important this time? The answer is, the 12th Amendment.
Political pundits have focused on how Trump can reach the requisite 270 electoral votes needed to win, but they continually miss the point. Donald Trump doesn’t need to get to 270, he just has to prevent Hillary from getting to 270. If both candidates fall short of 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment requires that Congress settle the matter by polling all 50 states, each of which only gets to cast one vote. It’s a great system because it gives New Hampshire the same clout as California, or North Carolina the same status as New York. The actual vote is cast by the state’s House of Representatives, and is to be done in accordance with the political party who dominates that chamber. Republicans control 34 state Houses, and a simple majority vote wins, thus Donald Trump would become president by a vote of 34 to 16. But we can’t get to this scenario unless Trump first wins North Carolina, then wins the rest of the swing states, AND takes at least one or two states away from Clinton. It’s a long shot for the Republican nominee, but stranger things have happened. Clinton, for her part, is trying to make sure that doesn’t happen, thus the myriad of campaign stops here by her and her high profile surrogates.
UVA political science professor Larry Sabato once said, “Every election is determined by the people who show up.” His observation is profound. If North Carolinians, (and we in the Triad in particular) show up to vote today, we can play a major role in determining who will occupy the Oval Office come January. Ours is an awesome responsibility which demands that more than 68% of us show up. So put down this newspaper, and get to the polls now, because today, every vote WILL count.
Every Vote Counts!
Every four years about this time, we hear politicians tell us that “every vote counts.” Concurrently we also hear stories of election fraud which make us wonder if that axiom is really moot. There were hanging chads in Florida in 2000, rigged machines in Ohio in 2004, and this year we were treated to partisan corruption by the DNC and CNN against Bernie Sanders. In addition to alleged fraud, the political system itself can also make us cynical about the importance of our vote. After all, the electoral college essentially tells voters in smaller states that their ballot doesn’t matter as much as those in larger states. But thanks to an already tightening presidential race, and the specter of the 12th amendment waiting in the wings, every single vote really will count this time. More on the 12th Amendment in a moment. First let’s examine who actually votes and when they vote here in the Tar Heel State.
In 2012, 48% of North Carolinians who voted early were Democrats, and 31% were Republicans. The actual tally was 893,000 to 585,000 respectively. As of last Friday, Democrats comprised 42% of early voters, and Republicans 30%, which means we’ve seen an increase in early voting for third party candidates this time. No surprise, given that both Trump and Clinton are highly unpopular. Early voting across North Carolina may also tell us about the strength of the Obama coalition.
In 2012, 520,000 African Americans turned out to vote early for the President, but this year that number dropped to 473,000. It’s one reason that the Triad in particular has been targeted by the Clinton campaign as a must-win region in a must-win state, and it’s why the President and his wife have made so many visits to our area. Michelle Obama recently reminded supporters at a rally that her husband won North Carolina in 2008 by just 200 votes per precinct, and lost the state in 2012 by 17 votes per precinct. It’s no wonder that one week later, speaking at a rally in Chapel Hill, the President himself told supporters, “the fate of the Republic rests on your shoulders!” Yet try as he may to protect his legacy and shore up support for Hillary, Mr. Obama may not be able to energize his urban base for a candidate with such high negatives. We’ll have to wait and see after today.
Speaking of today, you may not have to traverse long lines at the polls, because pundits have estimated that anywhere from 40 to 50% of North Carolinians voted early. I’m encouraged that so many people have come out to vote early, yet I’m concerned about the vote totals themselves. According to the State Board of Elections, only 68% of registered voters bothered to participate in the 2012 election. What does that mean in actual numbers? There are approximately 7.4 million people of voting age in North Carolina, but only 4.5 million of them voted four years ago. That means nearly 3 million registered voters stayed home instead of choosing between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Even worse, 18% of voting age residents have never bothered to register. So how do these discouraging statewide statistics translate to local data? In Guilford county, for example, there are approximately 350,000 adults of voting age, but in 2012, only 250,000 of them voted for president. That means over 100,000 people in Guilford county don’t bother to vote.
America is known as the “cradle of democracy”, yet our voting record says otherwise. In Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, 80% to 90% of people vote, compared to our 68%. We should be ashamed. With the convenience of early voting and the availability of absentee ballots, there is just no excuse for not voting, especially this year when every vote in North Carolina actually WILL count. As of this writing, Clinton and Trump are running neck and neck nationally, and Hillary enjoys a narrow lead in our state. So why are our votes so important this time? The answer is, the 12th Amendment.
Political pundits have focused on how Trump can reach the requisite 270 electoral votes needed to win, but they continually miss the point. Donald Trump doesn’t need to get to 270, he just has to prevent Hillary from getting to 270. If both candidates fall short of 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment requires that Congress settle the matter by polling all 50 states, each of which only gets to cast one vote. It’s a great system because it gives New Hampshire the same clout as California, or North Carolina the same status as New York. The actual vote is cast by the state’s House of Representatives, and is to be done in accordance with the political party who dominates that chamber. Republicans control 34 state Houses, and a simple majority vote wins, thus Donald Trump would become president by a vote of 34 to 16. But we can’t get to this scenario unless Trump first wins North Carolina, then wins the rest of the swing states, AND takes at least one or two states away from Clinton. It’s a long shot for the Republican nominee, but stranger things have happened. Clinton, for her part, is trying to make sure that doesn’t happen, thus the myriad of campaign stops here by her and her high profile surrogates.
UVA political science professor Larry Sabato once said, “Every election is determined by the people who show up.” His observation is profound. If North Carolinians, (and we in the Triad in particular) show up to vote today, we can play a major role in determining who will occupy the Oval Office come January. Ours is an awesome responsibility which demands that more than 68% of us show up. So put down this newspaper, and get to the polls now, because today, every vote WILL count.